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Nipples Ultra's avatar

The BARDA program is on the Trump/DOGE/JFK list of things to "review". Stevanato uses very little leverage, so they should survive any disruptions here, but it does seem like the Indiana project is in danger.

Cheers! And this is a very high-quality writeup.

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Best Anchor Stocks's avatar

Thank you! If I recall correctly they've already gotten cash flows from BARDA, so that should be locked in. With Indiana are you referring to Fishers? That's well underway right?

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JF's avatar

Great write-up!

I have a question out of curiosity.

What made you opt for EBIT (and not EBITDA) for multiples?

With so much Capex, there will surely be lots of DA in the next years.

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Best Anchor Stocks's avatar

Good Q for which I don't really have an answer! There will be quite a bit of DA in the coming years but most of the current Capex is growth Capex and I expect maintenance Capex to be relatively low. Stevanato is also way ahead of peers in capacity build-up, which might be very positive for the company if the demand arrives earlier than expected (something which seems to be happening)

I don't want to say this, but judging by how misleading margins are, the best valuation metric might be sales! Of course that could be very misleading too

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