ASML Capital Markets Day 2024 Highlights

The market, litho intensity, hyper-NA EUV...

Hi reader,

ASML held its Investor Day yesterday. The company shared lots of information, but I will only bring what I consider a highlight to this article. Many topics had already been discussed in past earnings calls or investor days, while others are too technical to add value here.

After reporting Q3 results, the company’s stock dropped quite materially. The reason was that management lowered its 2025 guidance midpoint estimate, which put the feasibility of the 2030 objectives in question. This uncertainty was “cleared” during Investor Day (I’ll share information about this later), among other things. The market took it well and ASML’s stock enjoyed a nice bump the following day and has done well in a week where the Nasdaq has not (this has obviously changed today):

Of course, we should always zoom out and the reality is that the company is still significantly off ATHs with the Nasdaq hovering around ATHs (i.e., we shouldn’t read much into it):

I’ll touch on the following topics in this article:

1. Market growth and underlying shifts

2. Commonality across systems and why it’s important

3. The EUV roadmap and hyper-NA

4. Litho intensity going forward

5. Holistic lithography and its implications

6. The importance of DUV and the installed base

7. The 2030 guidance and an update on valuation

Without further ado, let’s get started.